"The Graves Cannot Be Dug Fast Enough": Excess Deaths Among US Amish and Mennonites During the 1918 Flu Pandemic.

Estimating the lethal impact of a pandemic on a religious community with significant barriers to outsiders can be exceedingly difficult. Nevertheless, Stein and colleagues (2021) developed an innovative means of arriving at such an estimate for the lethal impact of COVID-19 on the Amish community in 2020 by counting user-generated death reports in the widely circulated Amish periodical The Budget. By comparing monthly averages of reported deaths before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, Stein and colleagues were able to arrive at a rough estimate of "excess deaths" during the first year of the pandemic. Our research extends the same research method, applying it to the years during and immediately preceding the global influenza pandemic of 1918. Results show similarly robust findings, including three notable "waves" of excess deaths among Amish and conservative Mennonites in the USA in 1918, 1919, and 1920. Such results point to the promise of utilizing religious periodicals like The Budget as a relatively untapped trove of user-generated data on public health outcomes among religious minorities more than a century in the past.

A gripe em Portugal. O caso da gripe russa (1889-1890) / The influenza in Portugal. The case of russian flu (1889-1890)

Este trabalho trata da gripe em Portugal, dando particular destaque à gripe russa. Não será abordada a “gripe espanhola”, dada a profusão de estudos já publicados nos últimos anos sobre esta pandemia. O nosso objetivo consiste em mostrar a antiguidade da doença em Portugal, bem como a sua recorrência ao longo dos séculos, incluindo na contemporaneidade, quando a gripe alcançou maior incidência. Os periódicos e as publicações médicas são a principal base do nosso trabalho, que pretende ser um contributo para o estudo de uma doença que não tem merecido a atenção que, decerto, é devida, designadamente da parte da História.(AU)

This work deals with influenza in Portugal, with particular emphasis on the Russian flu. The Spanish flu will not be addressed, given the profusion of studies already published in recent years on this pandemic. Our objective is to show the antiquity of the disease in Portugal, as well as its recurrence over the centuries, including in contemporary times, when the flu reached a higher incidence. Medical journals and publications are the main basis of our work, which aims to be a contribution to the study of a disease Grathat has not received the attention it certainly deserves, namely from the part of History.(AU)

Influenza pandemics throughout Brazilian history / Pandemias de influenza ao longo da história brasileira

Abstract Brazil has experienced several major epidemics of influenza, and the most destructive was in 1918-1919. This article focuses on mortality, mitigation policies, and the consequences of pandemic influenza during the national period. We provide the first mortality estimates for the 1890-1894 influenza pandemic and correct figures for later epidemics. The 1918-1919 episode cost more lives than assumed, although some cities suffered less, possibly because of public health actions. Influenza caused pandemics in 1957, 1968, 1976, and 2009, but these did not cause unusual outbreaks in Brazil.

Resumo O Brasil passou por várias epidemias importantes de influenza, a mais letal em 1918-1919. O artigo focaliza a mortalidade, as políticas de mitigação e as consequências das pandemias de influenza no período nacional. Fornecemos as primeiras estimativas de mortalidade para a pandemia de 1890-1894 e corrigimos números de epidemias posteriores. O episódio de 1918-1919 custou mais vidas do que se considerou anteriormente, embora algumas cidades tenham sofrido menos, possivelmente devido a ações de saúde pública. A influenza gerou pandemias em 1957, 1968, 1976 e 2009, mas elas não causaram surtos incomuns no Brasil.

Lost Lessons of the 1918 Influenza: The 1920s Working Hypothesis, the Public Health Paradigm, and the Prevention of Deadly Pandemics.

In standard historical accounts, the hyperlethal 1918 flu pandemic was inevitable once a novel influenza virus appeared. However, in the years following the pandemic, it was obvious to distinguished flu experts from around the world that social and environmental conditions interacted with infectious agents and could enhance the virulence of flu germs. On the basis of the timing and geographic pattern of the pandemic, they hypothesized that an "essential cause" of the pandemic's extraordinary lethality was the extreme, prolonged, and industrial-scale overcrowding of US soldiers in World War I, particularly on troopships. This literature synthesis considers research from history, public health, military medicine, veterinary science, molecular genetics, virology, immunology, and epidemiology. Arguments against the hypothesis do not provide disconfirming evidence. Overall, the findings are consistent with an immunologically similar virus varying in virulence in response to war-related conditions. The enhancement-of-virulence hypothesis deserves to be included in the history of the pandemic and the war. These lost lessons of 1918 point to possibilities for blocking the transformation of innocuous infections into deadly disasters and are relevant beyond influenza for diseases like COVID-19. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(10):1454-1464. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.306976).

Open Secrets: Silence, Suppression, and Memory in the History of Canada's 1918-20 Influenza Pandemic.

For several decades, the 1918-20 global influenza outbreak has been called "the forgotten pandemic." Although recent scholarly and public interest in the pandemic has complicated the narrative of forgetting, the label has stuck. Highlighting historical evidence of influenza's long-term impact upon survivors, family, and community in Canada, the flu stories presented here, diverse in form and content, verify that a key question in pandemic influenza history is not whether the pandemic was forgotten or remembered, but by whom, and in what ways, it has been suppressed - or foregrounded. By moving beyond the classic epidemic plot line, with beginning, middle, and end, historians can find new methodologies and evidence with which to more fully understand the influenza pandemic's unfolding intersection with colonialism, war, social inequality, and labour struggles in the 20th century.

For the flaring up of the flu: The nurses of the Maggiore Hospital in Milan hit by the Spanish fever.

In the last year of the Great War, Italy was also hit by the Spanish flu. The Civic Hospitals faced a deadly disaster with insufficient resources. All the heavy workload fell on the female nursing staff, who were the only ones able ensure the continuity of the hospital services. This study aimed to explore the impact of the influenza on the health of the nurses at the Maggiore Hospital in Milan during the second and third epidemic waves. Historical research was conducted between February and May 2020. Primary sources were retrieved from the historical archives of the Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico and the daily newspaper Corriere della Sera. In the autumn of 1918, the Maggiore Hospital in Milan changed its organization to hospitalise patients affected by the influenza pandemic. Although the hospital managers wanted to protect their healthcare staff from the risks of contagion by means of prophylaxis rules, 388 lay nurses and 80 religious sister nurses were affected by this insidious disease. The second and third waves of the pandemic claimed 25 victims of duty. Remembered for their altruism and spirit of abnegation, the hospital community honoured their sacrifice, and the citizens expressed their gratitude.

"The Most Disastrous and Fatal Epidemic": Mortality Statistics During the 1890 Russian Influenza Epidemic in Connecticut.

During the Russian influenza pandemic, which reached the United States in late 1889, US public health officials attempted to document the number of deaths associated with this disease outbreak. A historical perspective illuminates the complex categories used to classify deaths from influenza-associated diseases; substantial changes in weekly, monthly, and yearly death totals; and thoughtful efforts by health officials to measure the epidemic as it happened. The 1114 influenza deaths reported by the Connecticut State Board of Health in the 3 years after the January 1890 outbreak must be supplemented by the notable increases in the number of deaths from respiratory diseases, which elevates the likely toll to more than 7000 deaths during the epidemic. Whereas historians of public health have primarily examined efforts to control communicable diseases, this case study of mortality statistics reported by town officials and analyzed by the Connecticut State Board of Health demonstrates how officers of the local boards of health also responded to unexpected outbreaks of a familiar disease such as influenza. Understanding how organizations measured influenza-associated mortality illustrates an important stage in the development of American public health and also makes an important contribution to studying pandemics in history.

Clinical and molecular epidemiology of influenza viruses from Romanian patients hospitalized during the 2019/20 season.

Two main mechanisms contribute to the continuous evolution of influenza viruses: accumulation of mutations in the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase genes (antigenic drift) and genetic re-assortments (antigenic shift). Epidemiological surveillance is important in identifying new genetic variants of influenza viruses with potentially increased pathogenicity and transmissibility. In order to characterize the 2019/20 influenza epidemic in Romania, 1042 respiratory samples were collected from consecutive patients hospitalized with acute respiratory infections in the National Institute for Infectious Diseases "Prof. Dr. Matei Balș", Bucharest Romania and tested for influenza A virus, influenza B virus and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) by real-time PCR. Out of them, 516 cases were positive for influenza, with relatively equal distribution of influenza A and B. Two patients had influenza A and B co-infection and 8 patients had influenza-RSV co-infection. The most severe cases, requiring supplemental oxygen administration or intensive care, and the most deaths were reported in patients aged 65 years and over. Subtyping showed the predominance of A(H3N2) compared to A(H1N1)pdm09 pdm09 (60.4% and 39.6% of all subtyped influenza A isolates, respectively), and the circulation of Victoria B lineage only. Influenza B started to circulate first (week 47/2019), with influenza A appearing slightly later (week 50/2019), followed by continued co-circulation of A and B viruses throughout the season. Sixty-eight samples, selected to cover the entire influenza season and all circulating viral types, were analysed by next generation sequencing (NGS). All A(H1N1)pdm09 sequences identified during this season in Romania were clustered in the 6b1.A clade (sub-clades: 6b1.A.183P -5a and 6b1.A.187A). For most A(H1N1)pdm09 sequences, the dominant epitope was Sb (pepitope = 0.25), reducing the vaccine efficacy by approximately 60%. According to phylogenetic analysis, influenza A(H3N2) strains circulating in this season belonged predominantly to clade 3C.3A, with only few sequences in clade 3C.2A1b. These 3C.2A1b sequences, two of which belonged to vaccinated patients, harbored mutations in antigenic sites leading to potential reduction of vaccine efficacy. Phylogenetic analysis of influenza B, lineage Victoria, sequences showed that the circulating strains belonged to clade V1A3. As compared to the other viral types, fewer mutations were observed in B/Victoria strains, with limited impact on vaccine efficiency based on estimations.

Covid-19 y gripe de 1918-1919: paralelos históricos, preguntas y respuestas / Covid-19 and the 1918-1919 influenza: historical parallels, questions and answers

Resumen El desarrollo de la pandemia de la covid-19 ha motivado un renovado interés por la gripe de 1918-1919 para buscar elementos que facilitaran la comprensión de la experiencia presente, pero también como oportunidad para reevaluar la grave crisis sanitaria del siglo XX a la luz de lo que estamos viviendo. En este contexto y con ese objetivo se inserta esta reflexión histórica sobre estos dos fenómenos pandémicos, que muestra los paralelismos existentes y la necesidad de una toma de conciencia de que nuestro modelo de sociedad está en crisis y se requiere una transformación profunda.

Abstract The rise of the covid-19 pandemic has led to renewed interest in the 1918-1919 influenza in search of aspects that might help us understand the current situation, but also as an opportunity to re-evaluate the serious twentieth-century health crisis in light of what we are experiencing now. In this context and with that goal, this historical reflection shows the parallels that exist and the need for a realization that our model of society is undergoing a crisis and requires profound transformation.

[Covid-19 and the 1918-1919 influenza: historical parallels, questions and answers]. / Covid-19 y gripe de 1918-1919: paralelos históricos, preguntas y respuestas.

The rise of the covid-19 pandemic has led to renewed interest in the 1918-1919 influenza in search of aspects that might help us understand the current situation, but also as an opportunity to re-evaluate the serious twentieth-century health crisis in light of what we are experiencing now. In this context and with that goal, this historical reflection shows the parallels that exist and the need for a realization that our model of society is undergoing a crisis and requires profound transformation.

El desarrollo de la pandemia de la covid-19 ha motivado un renovado interés por la gripe de 1918-1919 para buscar elementos que facilitaran la comprensión de la experiencia presente, pero también como oportunidad para reevaluar la grave crisis sanitaria del siglo XX a la luz de lo que estamos viviendo. En este contexto y con ese objetivo se inserta esta reflexión histórica sobre estos dos fenómenos pandémicos, que muestra los paralelismos existentes y la necesidad de una toma de conciencia de que nuestro modelo de sociedad está en crisis y se requiere una transformación profunda.

Molecular Characterization of Seasonal Influenza A and B from Hospitalized Patients in Thailand in 2018-2019.

Influenza viruses continue to be a major public health threat due to the possible emergence of more virulent influenza virus strains resulting from dynamic changes in virus adaptability, consequent of functional mutations and antigenic drift in surface proteins, especially hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). In this study, we describe the genetic and evolutionary characteristics of H1N1, H3N2, and influenza B strains detected in severe cases of seasonal influenza in Thailand from 2018 to 2019. We genetically characterized seven A/H1N1 isolates, seven A/H3N2 isolates, and six influenza B isolates. Five of the seven A/H1N1 viruses were found to belong to clade 6B.1 and were antigenically similar to A/Switzerland/3330/2017 (H1N1), whereas two isolates belonged to clade 6B.1A1 and clustered with A/Brisbane/02/2018 (H1N1). Interestingly, we observed additional mutations at antigenic sites (S91R, S181T, T202I) as well as a unique mutation at a receptor binding site (S200P). Three-dimensional (3D) protein structure analysis of hemagglutinin protein reveals that this unique mutation may lead to the altered binding of the HA protein to a sialic acid receptor. A/H3N2 isolates were found to belong to clade 3C.2a2 and 3C.2a1b, clustering with A/Switzerland/8060/2017 (H3N2) and A/South Australia/34/2019 (H3N2), respectively. Amino acid sequence analysis revealed 10 mutations at antigenic sites including T144A/I, T151K, Q213R, S214P, T176K, D69N, Q277R, N137K, N187K, and E78K/G. All influenza B isolates in this study belong to the Victoria lineage. Five out of six isolates belong to clade 1A3-DEL, which relate closely to B/Washington/02/2009, with one isolate lacking the three amino acid deletion on the HA segment at position K162, N163, and D164. In comparison to the B/Colorado/06/2017, which is the representative of influenza B Victoria lineage vaccine strain, these substitutions include G129D, G133R, K136E, and V180R for HA protein. Importantly, the susceptibility to oseltamivir of influenza B isolates, but not A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 isolates, were reduced as assessed by the phenotypic assay. This study demonstrates the importance of monitoring genetic variation in influenza viruses regarding how acquired mutations could be associated with an improved adaptability for efficient transmission.

Imagination and remembrance: what role should historical epidemiology play in a world bewitched by mathematical modelling of COVID-19 and other epidemics?

Although every emerging infectious disease occurs in a unique context, the behaviour of previous pandemics offers an insight into the medium- and long-term outcomes of the current threat. Where an informative historical analogue exists, epidemiologists and policymakers should consider how the insights of the past can inform current forecasts and responses.

A Centenary Tale of Two Pandemics: The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and COVID-19, Part II.

Both the 1918 influenza pandemic and the 2019‒2021 COVID-19 pandemic are among the most disastrous infectious disease emergences of modern times. In addition to similarities in their clinical, pathological, and epidemiological features, the two pandemics, separated by more than a century, were each met with essentially the same, or very similar, public health responses, and elicited research efforts to control them with vaccines, therapeutics, and other medical approaches. Both pandemics had lasting, if at times invisible, psychosocial effects related to loss and hardship. In considering these two deadly pandemics, we ask: what lessons have we learned over the span of a century, and how are we applying those lessons to the challenges of COVID-19?

Precedent for the Present: Neurosurgery During the 1918 Wartime Influenza Pandemic.

In the early twentieth century, early neurosurgical pioneers marked their claims in the specialty during the combined threats of the Spanish influenza and World War I. Their stories, intimately connected, demonstrate personal and professional losses in the backdrop of overarching perseverance to achieve that which allowed neurosurgery to evolve into modernity. Today, as global order adapts to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-COVID-19) pandemic, their stories provide an opportunity for reflection as we carve our way forward as a specialty.

A Centenary Tale of Two Pandemics: The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and COVID-19, Part I.

Separated by a century, the influenza pandemic of 1918 and the COVID-19 pandemic of 2019-2021 are among the most disastrous infectious disease emergences of modern times. Although caused by unrelated viruses, the two pandemics are nevertheless similar in their clinical, pathological, and epidemiological features, and in the civic, public health, and medical responses to combat them. Comparing and contrasting the two pandemics, we consider what lessons we have learned over the span of a century and how we are applying those lessons to the challenges of COVID-19.

Pandemics throughout the centuries.

Pandemics have ravished the globe periodically, often associated with war, at times commencing as fever and rash, beginning in recorded history in the crowded walled city of Athens during the Peloponnesian War as described in great detail by the Athenian historian and military general Thucydides in 430 BCE. As the world now faces the first major pandemic of the 21st century, we focus on the "plague" commencing in Athens in 430 BCE and the 2 pandemics of the more recent century, which killed more than one million, the Spanish flu of 1918 and the Asian flu of 1957. The latter linked with successful vaccine development thanks to the heroic efforts of microbiologist Maurice Hilleman. We now look back and then forward to the viral infection coronavirus disease 2019 now devastating the world.

The origins of viral infection sleuth.

The events of the past year have underscored the serious and rapid threat that emerging viruses pose to global health. However, much of the rapid progress in understanding and combating SARS-CoV-2 was made possible because of the decades of important groundwork laid from researchers studying other emergent infectious diseases. The 2021 John Dirks Canada Gairdner Global Health award recognizes the contributions of Joseph Sriyal Malik Peiris and Yi Guan toward understanding the origins and options for control of newly emerging infectious disease outbreaks in Asia, notably zoonotic influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Cell's Nicole Neuman corresponded with Yi Guan about his path to becoming a viral infection sleuth and the challenges of understanding emerging pathogens and their origins. Excerpts of their exchange are included here.

Mortality of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Sweden in Relation to Previous Severe Disease Outbreaks.

Influenza viruses have caused disease outbreaks in human societies for a long time. Influenza often has rapid onset and relatively short duration, both in the individual and in the population. The case fatality rate varies for different strains of the virus, as do the effects on total mortality. Outbreaks related to coronavirus infections have recently become a global concern but much less is known about the dynamics of these outbreaks and their effects on mortality. In this work, disease outbreaks in Sweden, in the time period of 1860-2020, are characterized and compared to the currently ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. The focus is on outbreaks with a sharp increase in all-cause mortality. Outbreak onset is defined as the time point when death counts start to increase consistently for a period of at least 10 days. The duration of the outbreak is defined as the time period in which mortality rates are elevated. Excess mortality is estimated by standard methods. In total there were 15 outbreaks detected in the time period, the first 14 were likely caused by influenza virus infections, the last by SARS-CoV-2. The mortality dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak is shown to be similar to outbreaks due to influenza virus, and in terms of the number of excess deaths, it is the worst outbreak in Sweden since the "Spanish flu" of 1918-1919.